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by “Alamo” Joe Anthony

The media is gushing over Hillary Clinton’s performance in the Presidential debate this past Monday. She is the winner!

Or is she? Our crack political team examines why the media is wrong and why Trump is the winner.

On Monday evening, 84 million Americans sat down and watched the first Presidential debate in this year’s general election. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton took their places on the stage and in the American history books.

I get why the mainstream media sees Hillary Clinton as the winner. She looked calm and poised and she brought years of policy experience to the table. She was much better prepared than her opponent, and she kept Trump on the defensive for most of the debate. Conventional wisdom dictates that she is most decidedly the winner.

I’m a political wonk. I love politics. I breathe politics. Most of the pundits on TV are the same as I am. They love the mental sparring and the tit-for-tat of a good philosophical row. Me too. In fact, I went to sleep on Monday night wondering if Trump even had a chance after his terrible performance.

But then I went to work on Tuesday morning and I realized that Trump had won. Hands down.

With the election momentum in Trump’s favor, all he needed to do was convince the ‘non-wonky’ folks that he can at least look presidential. He did that. Here’s how.

There are two groups I am looking at here that have clearly shifted towards Trump after the debate.

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In the days leading up to the debate, Donald Trump was polling extremely low among members of the US military. This is a group that tends to overwhelmingly vote Republican, but many soldiers voiced concerns that with Donald Trump’s penchant for insulting those who disagree with him, they may find themselves invading Canada if Canadian PM Justin Trudeau made a joke about Trump’s hair. So, while Trump was leading in the military ranks, he wasn’t enjoying a plurality. With Trump’s reassurance that he would absolutely take nuclear first strike doctrine off the table and his insistence that he was against the Iraq War, even in the face of the Howard Stern recording, he was able to quell concerns in the military community.

If my unscientific polling is correct, Trump now enjoys at least 60% military support.

This is huge.

Secondly, there are the ‘others’. They are the non-political types. They know they don’t like Hillary even if they can’t articulate why without cursing. They also are wary of a wild-card like Trump. But they are non-political. They don’t watch the news, and their Facebook newsfeeds aren’t filled with memes supporting one candidate or another. They do know they haven’t gotten a raise in 10 or more years when adjusted for inflation, and they feel like they are living paycheck to paycheck. These folks tuned in for the first 10-15 minutes of the debate and then switched over to ‘Monday Night Football’ or ‘Keeping Up With The Kardashians’ (or something similar, I’m not sure if that intellectually numbing show is even still on TV).  During the first 15-20 minutes, Donald Trump was actually winning the debate. He actually articulated how these people were feeling and then touched briefly, although not to the depth I would have liked, on solutions to their economic problems. They saw that, switched the channel, and never saw the grasping for words and mud-slinging that followed. These people are also, according to my admittedly unscientific polling, breaking in large droves for Donald Trump. These are also the folks who won’t be tuning in to subsequent debates, or the news between now and the election. I predict these voters are with Trump to the end.

This brings me to my biggest prediction. Donald Trump won the election on Monday night. Here are the numbers.

First, Barack Obama won close to 94% of the very motivated African-American vote when he ran against Mitt Romney 4 years ago. Mrs. Clinton is still winning by a large margin among black voters, but it’s more along the lines of 82-86% depending on the poll. This means that 400-600,000 black voters will either be voting for Trump or will be sitting out on election day since some won’t be as motivated to vote since neither candidate shares their unique American experience.

Second, somehow Donald Trump has persuaded the Evangelical community to embrace him. Something Mitt Romney and John McCain were never able to do. The American Family Association estimated that some 2 million evangelically-leaning voters stayed home in 2012 because they were suspicious of electing a Mormon to the White House. This year, these voters are highly motivated, and they also believe Trump to be one of their own after James Dobson sent out an email proclaiming Trump to be a ‘baby Christian’. Whether he is or isn’t doesn’t matter. These voters believe Trump to be one of them and don’t want Hillary.

Finally, American politics is like a pendulum. We swing back and forth between conservative and liberal ideologies. It’s what we do. After 8 years of a Democrat in the White House, the pendulum is closer to the middle than the left as it was in 2012 and 2008. This bodes well for Trump.

Obama only won by a few million votes in 2012. I predict Trump wins at least 320 electoral votes and the presidency next month due to both increased conservative and decreased liberal motivation.

It’s over. And you heard it here first.

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